Rare Friday CPI Release Amplifies Market Uncertainty Ahead of Fed Meeting

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on a Friday for the first time since 2018, creating an unusual scenario with significant market implications. The September inflation report arrives amid a government shutdown that has stalled most federal economic data releases, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited insights before its October 29 policy meeting.

Typically published on a Tuesday or Wednesday, the CPI's Friday release is a rarity—last seen in January 2018. This time, the data lands just five days before the Fed meeting, compressing the decision-making window and magnifying its potential impact. Market volatility is expected to surge as traders parse the report for clues on rate cuts.

With no fresh employment or retail data due to the shutdown, the Fed's decision may hinge entirely on Friday's CPI reading. Current market pricing reflects a 99% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, but a softer inflation figure could push policymakers toward a more aggressive 0.5% reduction. Forecasts suggest moderating price pressures, but surprises remain a risk.